Notes
Outline
Some Opportunities in Dynamic Extended Range Forecasting
Eugenia Kalnay, Ming Cai, and Malaquias Pena
University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20742
Extracting useful predictability from the Dynamic Extended Range Forecasting (DERF) time range, two weeks to two months, is not easy.
This is a “dry patch” for predictability (D. Burridge, ECMWF)
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Consistence of the dynamical rule with the lag/lead correlation
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Summary
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Some opportunities for DERF
· Understand the feedbacks between the ocean and the atmosphere that make coupled anomalies last longer
· Develop better strategies for coupling in the week to intraseasonal range: AMIP runs are not “the best possible results”
· Exploit the regularity of the Madden-Julian Oscillations to increase skill of intraseasonal predictions
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Notes
