Some Opportunities in Dynamic Extended Range Forecasting Eugenia Kalnay, Ming Cai, and Malaquias Pena University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20742

We will review some of the opportunities that we believe

have not yet been exploited within the DERF “dry patch”:

• Extratropical atmosphere-ocean coupling: Contrary to what

is commonly stated, AMIP runs are not optimal (Pena et al, 2002)

• Intraseasonal variability, MJO: It should be possible to use the

regularity of the MJO to nudge the atmospheric forecasts (Waliser)

• 15-day ensembles done daily at NCEP, and the OK-TX drought

(Hong and Kalnay 2000, 2002)

• Improved initial conditions in coupled ocean atmosphere ensembles

(Cai et al, 2002)