Errors of the day
•They are instabilities of the background flow
•They dominate the analysis and forecast errors
•They are not taken into account in data assimilation except for 4D-Var and Kalman Filtering (very expensive methods)
•Their shape can be estimated with breeding
•Their shape is frequently simple (low dimensionality, Patil et al, 2001)
•A coupled ENSO system contains “errors of the month”