•Globally, one needs 100’s-1000’s of LVs to cover the
unstable
subspace
•Locally, in the
regions where errors grow, the dimension is very low
•
•For both for the QG model and the NCEP global model
less than 10 BV are enough to represent these local instabilities
•We obtained the bred
vectors for the Zebiak-Cane model (basically 1BV)
•
•We also obtained the bred vectors of the full NSIPP coupled
ocean-atmosphere model: they provide
the structure of the
instabilities in the coupled ENSO
modes (basically 1 BV)
•We need a new theory
for the dynamical stability in a very large
system such as the atmosphere, with room for several
coexistent,
independent, finite-space, finite-time
instabilities