UMD AOSC Seminar
Predictability of Severe Weather at the Mesoscales
Professor Fuqing Zhang
Penn State University
Department of Meteorology and Department of Statistics
Despite rapid advances in numerical weather prediction models and ever increasing computational capability, our ability to accurately predict various severe weather phenomena in the short range and at the mesoscales remains limited. This talk will present an overview of recent progress in our understanding of the mesoscale predictability of various severe weather phenomena including summertime squall lines, mesoscale convective systems, mesoscale convective vortices and tropical cyclones as well as wintertime snowstorms. Through cloud-resolving simulations of the life cycles of the idealized baroclinic waves typical of developing midlatitude cyclones with strong baroclinic and conditionally instability, I will present a multistage error-growth conceptual model of mesoscale predictability. Our new findings further demonstrate of the impacts of moist convection and diabatic heating on the limit of atmospheric predictability.
April 9, 2009, Thursday